Posts
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The Sticker Collector's Problem
Why filling a sticker album gets so frustrating near the end, the bit of probability behind it, and how to spend less finishing it.
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LLMs predict the 2026 World Cup
I gave four frontier LLMs the same context pack and asked each one for a full 48-team forecast of the 2026 World Cup. All four put Spain on top, picked the same top six and nearly every group winner, and only really split on Group D. I'm keeping their picks here and will check them against the real results as the tournament goes.
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Why Are the Uyuni Salt Flats Hexagonal?
The salt at Uyuni is split into polygons about a metre wide. I assumed they were drying cracks. It turns out the spacing is set by salty water creeping through the wet sand under the crust.
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How to build an eval suite
In this article I'm going to explain how to go about building an eval suite. In particular, I'm going to walk through the different layers you need to think about when constructing a reliable, well-covered set of evals.
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Why Streaming LLMs Need Attention Sinks
If you evict the first few tokens from the KV cache, a streaming LLM can fall apart. Here is why that happens, and why holding on to four early tokens is enough to make sliding-window inference work.